Week 2 Discussion: Probability
Week 2 Discussion: Probability
Discussion 1: Probability
To prepare for this Discussion, imagine that you are planning a trip to Las Vegas. You are not a gambler, and other than a few friendly poker evenings at home with friends, you have little or no experience with casinos. You still wish to try some of the games available. Research gambling games on the Internet to determine which games you might try during your trip to Las Vegas.
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BY DAY 3
Post a 200- to 250-word explanation of which games you would try and why. Also, explain an estimate of the chances of winning over losing at a game of your choice.Be sure to include the web links you used for your research.
Read a selection of your colleagues’ postings.
BY DAY 6
Respond to two or more of your colleagues’ postings in one or more of the following ways:
- Ask a probing question.
- Share an insight from having read your colleague’s posting.
- Offer and support an opinion.
- Make a suggestion.
- Expand on your colleague’s posting.
Return to this Discussion in a few days to read the responses to your initial posting. Note what you learned and the insights you gained from the comments your colleagues made.
Note: Refer to the Discussion Template in the Course Information area of the course navigation menu for your main post and response.
SUBMISSION AND GRADING INFORMATION
Grading Criteria
To access your rubric:
Week 2 Discussion 1 Rubric
Post by Day 3 and Respond by Day 6
To participate in this Discussion:
Week 2 Discussion 1
Discussion 2: Data Projects
The theory of probability developed from a study of various games of chance by using coins, dice, and cards. Processes such as flipping a coin, rolling a die, or drawing a card from a deck are called probability experiments. This week we will use classical probability to estimate an outcome, and then test that estimate using empirical probability.
Often when playing gambling games, or collecting items in cereal boxes, one wonders how long it will be before one achieves success. For example, imagine there are six different types of toys with one toy packaged at random in a cereal box. If a person wanted a certain toy, about how many boxes would that person have to buy on average before obtaining that particular toy? Of course, there is the possibility that the particular toy would be in the first box opened or that the person might never obtain the particular toy; although these would be considered rare instances.
To prepare for this Discussion, simulate this same experiment using a single, six-sided die. Choose a particular number—for example, 3. Roll the die until you get your number; that’s one “try.” Make a chart and title it “Tries vs Rolls” Keep rolling until your chosen number is rolled 100 times (100 “tries”), and use your “Tries vs Rolls” chart to Keep track of the number of total rolls needed to roll the number you select 100 times. Ask your friends or family members to help and have fun with you!
In your write-up, think about and answer these questions:
- What did you expect the average to be (from classical probability)?
- What accounts for the differences from what you expected?
- Would we get the same thing if we rolled another 100 experiments with the same die?
BY DAY 4
Post a 200- to 250-word comparison of the number of rolls you expected to reach 100 rolls of your selected number, based on the equations and information about probability in the course text, and the number of rolls you actually needed in the experiment you performed.
Read a selection of your colleagues’ postings.
BY DAY 7
Respond to two or more of your colleagues’ postings in one or more of the following ways:
- Ask a probing question.
- Share an insight from having read your colleague’s posting.
- Offer and support an opinion.
- Make a suggestion.
- Expand on your colleague’s posting.
Return to this Discussion in a few days to read the responses to your initial posting. Note what you learned and the insights you gained from the comments your colleagues made.
Note: Refer to the Discussion Template in the Course Information area of the course navigation menu for your main post and response.
SUBMISSION AND GRADING INFORMATION
Grading Criteria
To access your rubric:
Week 2 Discussion 2 Rubric
Post by Day 4 and Respond by Day 7
To participate in this Discussion:
Week 2 Discussion 2
Week 2 Quiz
Welcome to the Week 1 Quiz.
The quiz is available on Day 1 and remains available throughout the course. The quiz has no time limit and may be taken multiple times.
Note: Your instructor may provide further instructions for accessing the quiz in Connect Math.
BY DAY 7
Complete the quiz of this week.
SUBMISSION INFORMATION
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Your instructor may provide further instructions for accessing the quiz in Connect Math.
Each weekly quiz is available to the student on Day 1 of the week and remains available throughout the course. The quiz may be taken as often as necessary until the desired grade of 100% is achieved.
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Week in Review
In this week, you learned about probability concepts and how to determine the total number of outcomes in a sequence of events by using the fundamental counting rule. In examining probability, you also explored concepts such as chance, games, and risk taking.
In the next week, you will discuss normal distribution, which is defined as a continuous, symmetric, bell-shaped distribution of a variable. You will also learn how to determine whether data falls within a normal distribution, how to facilitate data analysis, and how to calculate specific data values for given percentages by using the standard normal distribution.
To go to the next week:
Week 3